4: The Big Picture
Lets skip the used aircraft market and look ahead. Almost 15,400 new airliners and freighters valued at US $1.3 trillion will be required by passenger and cargo airlines during the period 2001 to 2019, according to Airbus' Global Market Forecast.
This forecast covers the year-by-year fleet evolution of the world's largest 228 airlines and 49 subsidiaries, together with 187 additional cargo operators, predicts that the 15,400 new aircraft delivered over the next 20 year period will include around 14,700 passenger aircraft with more than 70 seats and over 700 freighters.
Driven by continuing economic growth and reduced fares, passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometers) will grow at an average annual rate of 4.9 per cent over the next 20 years to reach five trillion in 2009 and eight trillion in 2019, compared with three million today. Meanwhile, cargo traffic will be stimulated by the development of global e-commerce and manufacturing trends, with freight tonne kilometers increasing at an average annual rate of 5.7 per cent through 2019.
Based on 2001 catalogue prices, the 7,608 new passenger and freighter aircraft delivered through 2009 will be worth US $590 billion, and the 7,756 new aircraft delivered through the following decade will be worth US 4,750 billion, giving a total 20-year business volume of US $1.3 trillion - an average of US $65 billion per year. New passenger aircraft deliveries will average 733 per year over the full 20-year period.